蓄意攻击下城市电力网络毁伤韧性评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.06.021

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 161-169.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.06.021

蓄意攻击下城市电力网络毁伤韧性评估

韩林¹, 赵旭东¹, 陈志龙¹ 教授, 龚华栋¹ 副教授, 侯本伟² 副教授

1 陆军工程大学爆炸冲击防灾减灾国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210007;
2 北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京 100124

收稿日期:2021-03-15 修回日期:2020-05-02 出版日期:2021-06-28 发布日期:2021-12-28
作者简介:韩林 (1995—),男,山东菏泽人,硕士研究生,研究方向为关键基础设施防护。E-mail:sdhzhl1@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51708554);江苏省自然科学基金资助(BK20181336)。

Research on damage resilience assessment of urban power networks under intentional attacks

HAN Lin¹, ZHAO Xudong¹, CHEN Zhilong¹, GONG Huadong¹, HOU Benwei²

1 State Key Laboratory of Explosion & Impact and Disaster Prevention & Mitigation, Army Engineering University of PLA, Nanjing Jiangsu 210007, China;
2 College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

Received:2021-03-15 Revised:2020-05-02 Online:2021-06-28 Published:2021-12-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提升蓄意攻击威胁下城市电力网络毁伤韧性评估的有效性,采用性能时程响应函数(PRF)法,结合攻防双方策略博弈模型,建立蓄意攻击下城市电力网络毁伤韧性评估方法及流程;同时,融合电力潮流分析设计新型性能PRF,使韧性评估结果更符合电力网络实际功能需求;以我国某市电力网络为例,依托策略博弈模型求解出纳什均衡状态下攻防双方策略,并评估不同恢复条件下该电力网络毁伤韧性。研究结果表明:纳什均衡策略为攻防双方最有可能采取的攻击和防护策略,城市电力网络的毁伤韧性受恢复资源和恢复预算2个条件共同控制,恢复资源决定网络的恢复速度,恢复预算决定网络的恢复程度。

关键词: 蓄意攻击, 城市电力网络, 毁伤韧性评估, 策略博弈模型, 时程响应函数(PRF), 恢复资源

Abstract: In order to improve effectiveness of damage resilience assessment of urban power networks under threat of intentional attacks, a performance response function(PRF) method was used in combination with strategy game model of attacker and defender to develop a damage resilience assessment method and procedure. At the same time, a new type of performance response function was designed by integrating power flow analysis to make resilience evaluation result better meet actual functional requirements of power network. Finally, with a power network in a city of China as an example, strategy game model was employed to solve Nash equilibrium strategies of attacker and defender, and damage resilience under different recovery conditions was evaluated. The results show that Nash equilibrium strategy is the most possible attack and defend strategy for both sides, and damage resilience of urban power network is jointly controlled by recovery resources and recovery budget. While the former decides recovery speed, the latter determines recovery level.

Key words: intentional attack, urban power network, damage resilience assessment, strategy game model, performance response function(PRF), recovery resource

中图分类号:

X913.4

韩林, 赵旭东, 陈志龙, 龚华栋, 侯本伟. 蓄意攻击下城市电力网络毁伤韧性评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(6): 161-169.

HAN Lin, ZHAO Xudong, CHEN Zhilong, GONG Huadong, HOU Benwei. Research on damage resilience assessment of urban power networks under intentional attacks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(6): 161-169.

参考文献

[1] 王振, 刘茂. 电力系统恐怖袭击风险的定量分析[J]. 中国公共安全:学术版, 2006, 2(3): 37-41.
WANG Zhen, LIU Mao. Questitative analysis on the risk terrorist attack in electric power system[J]. China Public Security:Academy Edition, 2006, 2(3): 37-41.
[2] National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. The global terrorism database[EB/OL]. [2020-10-15].https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/.
[3] 李国辉. 全球恐怖袭击时空演变及风险分析研究[D]. 合肥: 中国科学技术大学, 2014.
LI Guohui. Spatial and temporal evolution and risk analysis of global terrorist attack[D]. Hefei: University of Science and Technology of China, 2014.
[4] 贺海磊, 郭剑波. 考虑共因失效的电力系统地震灾害风险评估[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2012, 32(28): 44-54.
HE Hailei, GUO Jianbo. Seismic disaster risk evaluation for power systems considering common cause failure[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2012, 32(28): 44-54.
[5] SCHERB A, GARRE L, STRAUB D. Evaluating component importance and reliability of power transmission networks subject to windstorms: methodology and application to the nordic grid[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2019, 191:DOI.10.1016/j.ress.2019.106517.
[6] 黄浪, 吴超, 杨冕,等. 韧性理论在安全科学领域中的应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(3): 1-6.
HUANG Lang, WU Chao, YANG Mian, et al. Application of resilience theory in field of safety science[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(3): 1-6.
[7] National Infrastructure Advisory Council (US). Critical infrastructure resilience: final report and recommendations[R], 2009.
[8] BRUNEAU M, CHANG S E, EGUCHI R T, et al. A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities[J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2003, 19(4): 733-752.
[9] OUYANG Min, DUENAS-OSORIO L. Multi-dimensional hurricane resilience assessment of electric power systems[J]. Structural Safety, 2014, 48: 15-24.
[10] 李岩峰, 尹家骁, 刘朝峰, 等. 基于投影寻踪聚类的供水管网地震韧性评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(6): 152-157.
LI Yanfeng,YIN Jiaxiao,LIU Chaofeng,et al.Assessment on seismic resilience of water supply network based on projection pursuit cluster[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2020, 30(6): 152-157.
[11] 陈长坤, 陈以琴, 施波,等. 雨洪灾害情境下城市韧性评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(4): 1-6.
CHEN Changkun, CHEN Yiqin, SHI Bo, et al. An model for evaluating urban resilience to rainstorm flood disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(4): 1-6.
[12] 李强, 陈志龙, 赵旭东. 地震灾害下城市生命线体系恢复力双维度综合评估[J]. 土木工程学报, 2017, 50(2): 65-72.
LI Qiang, CHEN Zhilong, ZHAO Xudong. Seismic resilience assessment of urban lifeline systems: a double-dimensional approach[J]. China Civil Engineering Journal, 2017, 50(2): 65-72.
[13] Federal Emergency Management Agency. Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology, earthquake model (HAZUS-MH MR4)[R],2003.
[14] FENG Qilin, CAI Hao, CHEN Zhilong, et al. Using game theory to optimize allocation of defensive resources to protect multiple chemical facilities in a city against terrorist attacks[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2016, 43: 614-628.
[15] GOLANY B, KAPLAN E H, MARMUR A, et al. Nature plays with dice - terrorists do not: allocating resources to counter strategic versus probabilistic risks[J]. Europe Journal of Operation Research, 2009, 192(1): 198-208.
[16] POWELL R. Defending against terrorist attacks with limited resources[J]. American Political Science Review, 2007, 101(3): 527-541.
[17] GAO Jianxi, BARZEL B, BARABASI A L. Universal resilience patterns in complex networks[J]. Nature, 2016, 530(7590): 307-312.
[18] HINES P, COTILLA-SANCHEZ E, BLUMSACK S. Do topological models provide good information about electricity infrastructure vulnerability?[J]. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2010, 20(3):DOI: 10.1063/1.3489887.
[19] CHANG S E, SHINOZUKA M. Measuring improvements in the disaster resilience of communities[J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2004, 20(3): 739-755.
[20] CIMELLARO G P, REINHORN A M, BRUNEAU M. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience[J]. Engineering Structures, 2010, 32(11): 3 639-3 649.
[21] 韩林, 赵旭东, 陈志龙, 等. 地震灾害下城市供水网络韧性评估及优化研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 135-142.
HAN Lin, ZHAO Xudong, CHEN Zhilong, et al. Seismic resilience assessment and optimization of urban water distribution network [J].China Safety Science Joumal,2021,31(2) :135-142.
[22] ADLER I. The equivalence of linear programs and zero-sum games[J]. International Journal of Game Theory, 2013, 42(1): 165-177.
[23] POLJANSEK K, BONO F, GUTIERREZ E. Seismic risk assessment of interdependent critical infrastructure systems: the case of european gas and electricity networks[J]. Earthquake Engineering Structural Dynamics, 2012, 41(1): 61-79.
[24] ZHAO Xudong, CAI Hao, CHEN Zhilong, et al. Assessing urban lifeline systems immediately after seismic disaster based on emergency resilience[J]. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2016, 12(12): 1 634-1 649.
[25] 金靓. 智能变电站造价管理及合理性评价研究[D]. 北京: 华北电力大学,2017.
JIN Liang. Cost management and rationality evaluation of intelligent substation[D]. Beijing:North China Electric Power University, 2017.

蓄意攻击下城市电力网络毁伤韧性评估

Research on damage resilience assessment of urban power networks under intentional attacks

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 3

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	王志如，李启明，梁作论. 城市地铁网络拓扑结构脆弱性评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2013, 23(8): 114-.
[2]	赵山春. 基于复杂网络理论的城市公交网络可靠性研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2013, 23(4): 108-.
[3]	韩纪彬，郭进利，张新波. 上海市轨道交通网络可靠性研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2012, 22(12): 103-.